Oil settles down over 3% to lowest since early March on US-Iran 60-day roadmap and Treasury waiver
Crude fell more than 3% Monday — WTI near $74 (its lowest since early March) and Brent near $78 — after Qatar and Pakistan said the US and Iran agreed a 60-day roadmap to a final deal and the US Treasury issued a 60-day waiver legalizing Iranian oil sales. Iran lifted Hormuz shipments to a war-period high and cut prices for China cargoes while Gulf producers prepared to restart output, tilting the market toward surplus even as roughly 1,500 ships remained stuck inside the Gulf.
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Diplomacy plus a sanctions waiver tilt the market from fear-of-shortage to fear-of-surplus as Gulf barrels prepare to return.
CNBC and NPR reported crude sinking to multi-month lows after the 60-day roadmap and a Hormuz de-confliction line, with the Treasury waiver clearing Iranian crude to market. Fitch projects the balance swinging from deficit toward surplus once the strait fully reopens.
A partial US sanctions lift is the concrete deliverable letting Iranian barrels flow again, even as Tehran disputes the terms.
Al Jazeera framed the Treasury's 60-day waiver as Washington partially lifting Iran oil sanctions amid 'encouraging' talks, cautioning that roughly 1,500 ships remain stuck inside the Gulf and a roadmap is not a signed deal, leaving a price snap-back possible if technical talks collapse.